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Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T18:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30655/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Partial halo CME seen in both coronagraphs and associated with an X1.1 flare from AR 3664 (S18W29) with a full halo faint shock and a slightly brighter fuzzy-fronted bulk to the west. The start time is possibly earlier that 2024-05-09T18:23Z bc of a SOHO data gap. Coronal signatures include a sizable ejecta from AR 3664 seen directed north-westwards at ~17:36ZZ in AIA 304, an elongated dimming extending northward and westward of the flare location and stretching as far as the two coronal holes north of the equator. A possible arrival signature is characterized by a weak rotation of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 15nT. A subsequent increase in speed is observed from ~770 km/s to 1005 km/s at 2024-05-12T00:555Z and a sharp increase in temperature. Density appears to decrease preceding this arrival signature. Possibly this is a flank impact/glancing blow arrival. Due to the increase in solar wind speed a coronal hole high speed stream may also be embedded in this signature, originating from a coronal hole which reached the central meridian on 2024-05-03.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T20:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-10T22:19Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 888
Longitude (deg): 31W
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Fitted to main bulk ejecta rather than shock.
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 38.33 hour(s)
Difference: 0.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-10T06:10Z

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